Online Estimation of Dynamic Origin-Destination Matrices Using Reinforcement Learning with Link-Flow Propagation Guidance

Engineering notes

Engineering notes will be added by the aipentium editorial team.

Chinese explanation / 中文解读

中文解读待补充：本站会优先为大语言模型、生成式AI、ChatGPT相关技术、计算机视觉、深度学习等高价值论文补充中文说明。

Original abstract

Online dynamic origin-destination (OD) matrix estimation (DODE) calibrates time-dependent OD demand to reproduce observed link-flow trajectories. In online, OD demand should be estimated from current observations and propagated network states while subsequent observations and stochastic dynamic network loading (DNL) outcomes remain uncertain. Recently, reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a promising alternative, reducing computational burden by replacing iterative algorithms while being applicable to stochastic environments. However, because the policy is trained offline and deployed online, it must handle varying target link-flow trajectories; since each target trajectory defines the link-flow error used in the reward, the same OD demand vector can require different adjustments, making conventional scalar feedback ambiguous. To address this gap, this study proposes LFPG-RL, which integrates link-flow propagation guidance (LFPG) into proximal policy optimization (PPO). LFPG combines link-flow error sensitivities with the contribution of each OD-time demand component to simulated link flows, transforming aggregate mismatch into OD-specific advantage shaping for PPO actor updates. At deployment, the policy requires only a single forward pass. LFPG-RL is developed and evaluated on 250 weekday trajectories of 15-min link-flow data from a Melbourne arterial network modeled by a link transmission model with stochastic route choice. On held-out trajectories, LFPG-RL achieved an RMSE of 4.69, MAPE of 20.15%, and Pearson correlation of 0.995. These results support the contention that our method is a more efficient and accurate online OD demand calibration method compared to existing ones.

Links and sources

• Official / arXiv page
• PDF from original source

Comments