Distribution-Aware Diffusion-LLM for Robust Ultra-Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

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Original abstract

Time series forecasting is a fundamental machine learning task. Recent work has explored Large Language Models (LLMs) for this purpose due to their strong generalization, pattern recognition, and zero-shot or few-shot capabilities. Despite their suitability for long-context learning, LLMs face challenges in multimodal settings: they lack calibrated probabilistic modeling for non-text data and struggle to align heterogeneous representations. To address these issues, we propose a new framework Diffusion-LLM that integrates a conditional diffusion model into an LLM-based forecasting pipeline. This joint design enables learning the conditional distribution of future data while improving semantic alignment in a shared latent space. We evaluate Diffusion-LLM on six long-term forecasting benchmarks, including ETT, Weather, and ECL. Our method consistently outperforms existing LLM-based baseline, achieving notable gains in ultra-long-term and few-shot forecasting and demonstrating the value of distribution-aware regularization for enhancing robustness and generalization in time series LLMs.

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• Official / arXiv page
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